Publication

Concerns about the long-run availability of metals have led to speculation that resources that have traditionally been available may become increasingly scarce in the future. To investigate this possibility in the case of nickel, we have built upon the history of nickel flows into use for the period 1988 to the present to develop plausible scenarios for the potential future supply and demand of nickel for the planet, and the associated energy and water use. As in other work, these scenarios are not predictions, but rather stories of possible futures that have the purpose of providing perspective and contemplating policy options. We report herein on our results for nickel supply and demand under four scenarios. We find that calculated nickel demand increases by 140-175% by 2025 and 215-350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is termed Equitability World, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. From the perspective of the results for the four scenarios, we conclude that nickel demands could be met until at least 2050 given known geological nickel resources. The energy and water required for nickel production are anticipated to increase to as much as 0.3% and 0.035% of projected 2050 overall global energy and water demands.