Publication

Mitigating the effects of urban expansion on habitat with high conservation value depends largely on national and sub-national governance that can effectively shape urban growth. This paper is the first study to map urban caused biodiversity decline and governance. The central goal of this paper is to identify where and how weak governance and future urban expansion may combine to lead to the decline of biodiversity. We identify four categories of countries based on the level of blodiversity impact from urban expansion and governance capacity, as expressed in the Worldwide Governance Indicators. We review the literature of case studies to understand how governance capacity modulates the impact of urban expansion on biodiversity. Our results show that if predicted urban expansion continues, by 2030, more than two-thirds of all species impacted by urban expansion will occur in countries with low levels of political stability or regulatory quality, two factors which were identified as most important in the ability of land governance to mitigate urban threats on biodiversity. Our results suggest that land-use planning cannot be the sole solution for preventing urban-caused global biodiversity decline, but rather that different categories of countries need contrasting conservation strategies. Countries that have high potential blodiversity impact and low land governance capacity require short-term conservation strategies which facilitate public participation, as well as international aid and development to increase governance capacity. Furthermore, enhanced coordination across different decision-making levels is important so that strategies at a single scale do not counterbalance efforts at other levels.