Is Global Warming Human-Caused?

The Views of U.S. Senators vs. Their Constituents

About the Data

These data show estimates of the percentage of American adults who say global warming is not happening or natural versus those who say it is at least partly human caused. Yea and Nay votes represent the votes of U.S. Senators on the amendment offered by Senator Schatz (HI) stating that climate change is happening and significantly human caused. Orange bars depict the percent of each state’s public who believe global warming is mostly human caused plus those who believe it is caused by both humans and natural changes. Blue bars depict the percent of each state’s public who believe global warming is not happening plus those who believe its cause is mostly natural. The Difference column is the percent of each state’s public that believes global warming is at least partly human caused minus the percent that believes it is not happening or natural. In other words, the greater the difference in percentage points, the more people in that state believe that global warming is at least partly human caused. State estimates are based on a statistical model of public climate change opinion developed by researchers at Yale and Utah State Universities.

Senator names are linked to their websites. Margin of error estimates based on 95% confidence intervals using 199 bootstrap simulations indicate that the model is accurate to approximately ±5 percentage points. The mean absolute difference between model estimates and independent validation survey results from four states (CA, TX, OH, CO) was 2.9 percentage points (SD = 1.5).

Data source: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication