RESEARCH

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Kenneth Gillingham
Associate Professor, Yale School of the Environment
E-mail: kenneth dot gillingham at yale dot edu

Research Interests

Environmental & Energy Economics, Industrial Organization, Public Economics, Empirical Methods,
Technological Change, Transportation Economics, Energy & Climate Policy Modeling

 

All Papers | Selected Economics Papers | Selected Science Papers | Selected Management Papers

Selected Working Papers

Equilibrium Trade in Automobile Markets (with Fedor Iskhakov, Anders Munk-Nielsen, John Rust, and Bertel Schjerning)
Revisions Requested at Journal of Political Economy
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Visibility and Peer Influence in Durable Good Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger, Justin Kirkpatrick, and Steve Sexton)
Resubmitted to Marketing Science
[Working Paper]

What is the Value of Conformity? Evidence from Home Landscaping and Water Conservation (with Jesse Burkhardt, Nathan Chan, and Bryan Bollinger)
Revisions Requested at American Journal of Agricultural Economics

Linking Housing Policy, Housing Typology and Residential Energy Demand in the United States (with Peter Berrill and Edgar Hertwich)
Revisions Requested at Environmental Science & Technology

Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Information and Pricing on Residential Electricity Consumption (with Jesse Burkhardt and Praveen Kopalle)
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Learning-by-Doing in Solar Photovoltaic Installations (with Bryan Bollinger)
[Working Paper]

Quantifying the Benefits of the Introduction of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (with Rich Langford)
[Working Paper]

The Effect of Fuel Economy Standards on Vehicle Weight Dispersion and Accident Fatalities (with Antonio Bento and Kevin Roth)
[Working Paper] [Appendix]

The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards versus Feebates
[NEPI Working Paper]

Publications

Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (with Sebastien Houde and Arthur van Benthem)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2020), forthcoming
[Published Version] [Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger)
Management Science (2020), forthcoming
[Working Paper]

Attribute Substitution in Household Vehicle Portfolios (with Jim Archsmith, Chris Knittel, and Dave Rapson)
RAND Journal of Economics (2020), forthcoming
[Working Paper]

Field Experimental Evidence Shows that Self-Interest Attracts More Sunlight (with Bryan Bollinger and Marten Ovaere)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020), 117(34): 20503-20510
[Published Version] [Research Highlight in Nature]

Long-run Environmental and Economic Impacts of Electrifying Waterborne Shipping in the United States (with Pei Huang)
Environmental Science & Technology (2020), 54(16): 9824-9833
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Supplementary Information]

Peer Effects in Residential Water Conservation: Evidence from Migration (with Bryan Bollinger and Jesse Burkhardt)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2020), 12(3): 107-133
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper] [Global Water Forum Post]

The Short-run and Long-run Effects of Covid-19 on Energy and the Environment (with Chris Knittel, Jing Li, Marten Ovaere, and Mar Reguant)
Joule (2020), 4(7): 1337-1341
[Published Version (Covid-19 Open Access Portal)] [Supplementary Information]

Running a Car Costs Much More Than People Think (with Mark Andor, Andreas Gerster, Marco Horvath)
Nature (2020), 580: 453-455
[Published Version]

Peer Influence on Household Energy Behaviors (with Kim Wolske and Wes Schultz)
Nature Energy (2020), 5: 202-212
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect and the Proposed Rollback of U.S. Fuel Economy Standards
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2020), 14(1): 136-142
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

2019

Hurdles and Steps: Estimating Demand for Solar Photovoltaics (with Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Quantitative Economics (2019), 10(1): 275-310
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

Is Abundant Natural Gas a Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future or a Dead-end? (with Pei Huang)
Energy Journal (2019), 40(2): 75-100
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Online Appendix]

A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving (with Anders Munk-Nielsen)
Journal of Urban Economics (2019), 109: 27-40
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper with Online Appendix]

2018

Flawed Analyses of U.S. Auto Fuel Economy Standards (with Antonio Bento et al.)
Science (2018), 362(6419): 1119-1121
[Published Version]

Credibility-Enhancing Displays Promote the Provision of a Non-Normative Public Good (with Gordon Kraft-Todd, Bryan Bollinger, Stefan Lamp, and Dave Rand)
Nature (2018), 563: 245-248
[Published Version]

Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth (with Peter Christensen and William Nordhaus)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2018), 115(21): 5409-5414
[Published Version]

The Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (with Jim Stock)
Journal of Economic Perspectives (2018), 32(5): 1-20
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Errata]

Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison (with William Nordhaus et al.)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2018), 5(4): 791-826
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Cowles Foundation Working Paper]

Nudging Energy Efficiency Audits: Evidence from a Field Experiment (with Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Journal of Environmental Economics & Management (2018), 90: 303-316
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

Advances in Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies and Programs (with Karen Palmer and Amelia Keyes)
Annual Review of Resource Economics (2018), 10(1)
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

2017

Lessons from First Campus Carbon Pricing Scheme (with Stefano Carattini and Dan Esty)
Nature (2017), 51: 27-29
[Published Version]

What Factors Affect the Prices of Low-Priced U.S. Solar PV Systems (with Greg Nemet et al.)
Renewable Energy (2017), 114: 1333-1339
[Published Version] [LBNL Working Paper]

Solar Subsidies and Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Systems (with Greg Nemet et al.)
Applied Energy (2017), 187: 501-513
[Published Version]

2016

Reforming the Federal Coal Leasing Program (with Jim Bushnell, Meredith Fowlie, Michael Greenstone, Alan Krupnick, Charlie Kolstad, Adele Morris, Dick Schmalensee, and Jim Stock)
Science (2016), 354(6316): 1096-1098
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy (with David Rapson and Gernot Wagner)
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2016), 10(1): 68-88
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Supplementary Materials] [RFF Discussion Paper]

Opportunities for Advances in Climate Economics (with Marshall Burke et al.)
Science (2016), 352(6283): 292-293
[Published Version]

Deconstructing Solar Photovoltaic Pricing: The Role of Market Structure, Technology, and Policy (with Hao Deng et al.)
Energy Journal (2016), 37(3): 231-250
[Published Version] [LBNL Working Paper]

2015

The Microeconomic Theory of the Rebound Effect and its Welfare Implications (with Nathan W. Chan)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2015), 2(1): 133-159
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Heterogeneity in the Response to Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and Implications for the Rebound Effect (with Alan Jenn and Inês Azevedo)
Energy Economics (2015), 52(S1): S41-S52
[Published Version] [Working Paper with Online Appendix]

Spatial Patterns of Solar Photovoltaic System Adoption: The Influence of Neighbors and the Built Environment (with Marcello Graziano)
Journal of Economic Geography (2015), 15(4): 815-839
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

2014

Using and Improving the Social Cost of Carbon (with Billy Pizer et al.)
Science (2014), 346(6214): 1189-1190
[Published Version]

Rebound Effects
In: New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume (eds). Palgrave Macmillian Publishing. 2014.
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Bridging the Energy Efficiency Gap: Policy Insights from Economic Theory and Empirical Analysis (with Karen Palmer)
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2014), 8(1): 18-38
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Identifying the Elasticity of Driving: Evidence from a Gasoline Price Shock in California
Regional Science & Urban Economics (2014), 47(4): 13-24
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

2013

Long-Term Shifts in Lifecycle Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity (with Sonia Yeh, Gouri Mishra, Geoff Morrison, Jacob Teter, Raul Quiceno, and Xavier Riera-Palou)
Environmental Science & Technology (2013), 47(6): 2494-2501
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect is Over-played (with Matthew Kotchen, David Rapson, and Gernot Wagner)
Nature (2013), 493: 475-476
[Published Version]

2012

Peer Effects in the Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic Panels (with Bryan Bollinger)
Marketing Science (2012), 31(6): 900-912
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version] [Online Appendix]

Barriers to the Implementation of Low Carbon Technologies (with Jim Sweeney)
Climate Change Economics (2012), 3(4): 1-25
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Split Incentives in Residential Energy Consumption (with Matt Harding and Dave Rapson)
Energy Journal (2012), 33(2): 37-62
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version] [Contract Theory Appendix]

2010

Market Failure and the Structure of Externalities (with Jim Sweeney)
In: Harnessing Renewable Energy, A. Jorge Padilla and Richard Schmalensee (eds). RFF Press. 2010.
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Economic Impact of the Integration of Alternative Vehicle Technologies into the New Zealand Vehicle Fleet (with Jonathan Leaver)
Journal of Cleaner Production (2010), 18(9): 908-916
[Published Version]

2009

Energy Efficiency Economics and Policy (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
Annual Review of Resource Economics (2009), 1: 597-619

[Published Version] [NBER Working Paper Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version] [Reprint in Italian in Energia]

Economic Efficiency of Solar Hot Water Policy in New Zealand
Energy Policy (2009), 37(9): 3336-3347

[Published Version]

Assessment of Primary Impacts of a Hydrogen Economy in New Zealand using UNISYD (with Jonathan Leaver and Luke Leaver)
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2009), 34(7): 2855-2865
[Published Version]

2008

Modeling Endogenous Technological Change for Climate Policy Analysis (with Richard Newell and William Pizer)
Energy Economics (2008), 30(6): 2734-2753
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Learning-by-Doing and the Optimal Solar Policy in California (with Arthur van Benthem and James Sweeney)
Energy Journal (2008), 29(3): 131-151
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper Version] [RFF Weekly Policy Commentary based on the paper]

Impact of Bioenergy Crops in a Carbon Constrained World: An Application of the MiniCAM Linked Energy-Agriculture and Land Use Model (with Stephen Smith and Ronald Sands)
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2008), 13(7): 675-701
[Published Version] [Published Version with Appended Figures]

2007

Measuring Marginal Congestion Costs of Urban Transportation: Do Networks Matter? (with Elena Safirova and Sebastien Houde)
Transportation Research A (2007), 41(8): 734-749
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

2006

Energy Efficiency Policies: A Retrospective Examination (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2006) 31: 193-237
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version] [Resources article based on the paper]

Economies of Scale in Community Water Systems (with Jhih-Shyang Shih, Winston Harrington, and William Pizer)
Journal of American Water Works Association (2006) 98(9): 100-108
[RFF Discussion Paper Version]

2005

Choosing Congestion Pricing Policy: Cordon Tolls vs. Link-Based Tolls (with Elena Safirova, Peter Nelson, Winston Harrington, and Abram Lipman)
Transportation Research Record (2005) 1932: 169-177
[Published Version]

2004

Welfare and Distributional Effects of HOT Lanes and Other Road Pricing Policies in Metropolitan Washington, DC (with Elena Safirova, Ian Parry, Winston Harrington, Peter Nelson, and David Mason)
In: Road Pricing: Theory and Practice, Georgina Santos (ed). Elsevier Publishing. 2004
[RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Other Publications

Carbon Calculus: The Cost of Greenhouse Gas Reductions
International Monetary Fund Finance & Development (2019), 56(4)

[Published Version]

Comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Docket numbers: EPA–HQ–OAR–2018–0283 and NHTSA–2018–0067 (2018), October 27

[On the Forecasting of New Vehicle Sales (with Jim Stock and Wade Davis)] [On Fleet Turnover and Used Car Prices] [On the Rebound Effect]

William Nordhaus and the Costs of Climate Change
YaleGlobal Online and VoxEU/CEPR Policy Portal (2018), October

[YaleGlobal Online] [VoxEU Version]

Federal Mineral Leasing Reform and Climate Policy (with Jim Stock)
The Hamilton Project Policy Proposal (2016), 2016-07

[Brookings Link]

Do Peer Effects Matter? Assessing the Impact of Causal Social Influence on Solar PV Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger)
Photovoltaics International (2012), 17: 146-150

[Published Version]

Carbon Accounting is a Tricky Business, Letter to the Editor (with Andrew Friedland)
Science (2010), 327: 411-412

[Published Version]

Analysis of Measures to Meet the Requirements of California's Assembly Bill 32 (with James Sweeney, John Weyant, and the AB-32 team)
Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency Working Paper (2008)

Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles: A Prudent Intermediate Step or a Step in the Wrong Direction?
Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project Working Paper (2006)

The Effectiveness and Cost of Energy Efficiency Programs (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
In: The RFF Reader in Environmental and Resource Policy, Wallace Oates (ed). Resources for the Future Press. 193-201. 2006

Are HOT Lanes a Hot Deal? Analyzing the Potential of HOV to HOT Lanes Conversion in Northern Virginia (with Elena Safirova, Winston Harrington, and Peter Nelson)
Resources for the Future Issue Brief 03-03 (2003)

Revving up the Tax Engine: Gas Taxes and the DC Metro Area's Transportation Dilemma (with Peter Nelson and Elena Safirova)
Resources for the Future Issue Brief 03-05 (2003)