This site provides estimates of the Canadian adult population’s climate change beliefs and policy preferences at provincial and electoral district levels - a new source of high-resolution data on public opinion that can inform Canadian decision-making, policy, and education initiatives.
The estimates are derived from a statistical model using multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) on a large national survey dataset (n>5,000), along with demographic and geographic population characteristics.
The estimates use the same validated technique deployed by Howe et al. (2015) to estimate local-scale US public opinion. More information can be found here:
Howe, P., Mildenberger, M., Marlon, J.R., and Leiserowitz, A., (2015) “Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA,” Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2583.
These US estimates were validated using three different methods. First, cross-validation analyses were conducted within the dataset. The dataset was divided into two sets of respondents, with one part used to run the model and the other kept aside for validation. The model estimates were then compared to the results of the set aside respondents to directly quantify the percentage of correct answers the model predicted. These cross-validation tests were repeated multiple times using different sample sizes and dividing the data in different ways. Second, the model estimates derived from the full dataset were compared to the results of independent, representative state- and city-level surveys. Third, some model estimates were compared with third-party survey data collected by other researchers in previous years.
We undertake Canada-specific validation using the cross-validation technique deployed in the US case. For more details, please see the online working paper:
Mildenberger, M., Howe, P.D. , Lachapelle, E., Stokes, L.C., Marlon, J., and Gravelle, T. “The distribution of climate change public opinion in Canada.” (February 15 2016). Available here.