To address environmental issues, society needs a deeper understanding of the natural world, and the ways we can regulate our own behavior. Faculty and students at F&ES conduct research in eight broadly conceived areas of environmental concern – biodiversity, forestry, global climate, industry, law and economics, urban systems, water, and social ecology. The scope of these programs reflects not just the complexity of human interaction with the environment, but the fact that the easy answers have been exhausted. As such, it is the mission of the F&ES faculty and students to conduct research that uncovers new knowledge, unique insights, and approaches that tie many fields together. This mission is further carried out by communicating the results of this research to the widest possible audience through publication, lectures, and other educational programs.

F&ES Research News

Seminar Synopsis | Steve Davis: Outsourcing Climate Change: Implications of the Growing Trade in Carbon

Dr. Steven Davis, Assistant Professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine, offered a new perspective on the global trade of fossil carbon through fuel extraction, transportation, and embodiment in traded goods. His presentation argued that climate policy should include where fossil fuels are extracted or consumed.
The current focus “misses the economic interests of countries relying on or perpetuating fossil fuel burning,” he explained. Under the typical view, Annex B countries (US, Japan, Europe) are stabilizing fossil fuel emissions while emissions from Non-Annex B countries (China and India) are increasing due to energy-intensive and rapid economic growth. In response, Dr. Davis sought to answer this question: “What fraction of those rising emissions is really related to goods and services consumed in developed countries?”
Dr. Davis used the Leontief input-output model to generate a technology matrix using the Global Trade Analysis project, covering 113 regions and 57 sectors from 2004. The model specifies the final demand in any country to determine the level of output required to meet that demand. The result demonstrates the levels of emissions embodied in trade – which countries tend to be net importers and net exporters of fossil fuels. China and other emerging markets exported the largest fraction of produced emissions. 23% of emissions in China are actually embodied in exported goods and services. On the other hand, countries like Switzerland are importing emissions in the form of consumer goods.
If consumption as well as course emissions are factored in, then emissions in developed countries have continued to grow by 7%. These results support Dr. Davis’ argument for consumption-based accounting. He asserted that, “production emissions underestimate the role of extraterritorial consumption in driving emissions,” and that “climate policies that neglect trade may displace but not avoid emissions.” To mitigate this displacement, costs could be passed on to consumers in developed countries, if developing countries can be persuaded to develop carbon taxes and collect the resulting revenues.
The amount of fossil fuels generated in the extraction and transport of fossil fuels exceeds that of consumed goods. Some countries, like Australia, export more fuels than they consume. As a result, extraction-based accounting is also needed to measure the drivers of fossil fuel emissions. Unlike consumed or produced emissions, fossil fuel resources are geographically concentrated, where 75% of total emissions originate in 10 regions. Dr. Davis suggested focusing on the point of extraction as the “most efficient place to impose a global price on carbon.”  However, there is “little incentive for extractors to impose such a price without a threat of a price change elsewhere in the supply chain.”
In conclusion, Dr. Davis’ research warns that the “growing trade in carbon undermines the effectiveness of regional climate policies and exposes countries to the costs of foreign policies.” The growing use of fossil fuels in both trade and consumption needs to be accounted for in policy design and implementation. Otherwise, emissions will be outsourced or transferred to other countries, rather than reduced.
~Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Steven E. Koonin: The Promise of Urban Science

Dr. Steven E. Koonin, Professor of Information Operations & Management Sciences in New York University, gave a presentation on the new Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP), an exciting new part of Mayor Bloomberg’s New York City Tech Initiative.
The initiative focuses around big cities – which are the “loci of consumption, economic activity, and innovation.” As a result, “cities are the cause of our problems and the source of the solutions.” Not only do cities need to find solutions for sustainability, efficiency, and resiliency, but they need to address quality of life, equity, and efficiency in order to attract the best businesses and residents.
Dr. Koonin argued that big data could be used to resolve urban problems, unify domains and disciplines, and prompt change that could lead to better city operations and resiliency. As the number of networked devices grows, so does our capacity to acquire data on a massive scale. This data can then be used to better understand society, which, in turn, can induce rapid change and development.
How did Dr. Koonin, a physicist by trade, wind up in this business? Dr. Koonin explained that his experience in the Capitol and in industry led him to think of how sectors can change in response to technological advances. He argued, “Technology is not the only component to changing the system.” Social sciences are an integral part of this component – regulation, economics, behavior, and changing values and perceptions.  Building on his experience in the energy industry, he suggested that the best place for data-driven energy policy is in cities. Large-scale, urban data collection requires instrumenting a city to collect data on three key “buckets of information”: infrastructure, environment, and people.
Properly acquired, integrated, and analyzed data can take the government “beyond imperfect understanding” and towards “better and more efficient operations, better planning, and better policy,” suggested Dr. Koonin. The private sector could use this integrated data to develop new services and governments could use it to improve governance and reduce crime. Although this type of urban data has been collected for millennia, dating back even to the Roman Empire, new technologies can provide “data of unprecedented granularity, variety, coverage, and timeliness.” Data could be extracted from a variety of sources, including administrative records, sensor data, and even infrared technology. Dr. Koonin presented a series of interesting examples of using photography, energy usage, and cell phones to monitor activity in buildings, traffic congestion, and even popular taxi pick up and drop off points. This data monitors the pulse of the city and can be used to find anomalies, like the widespread economic and social ripples from Hurricane Sandy.
Dr. Koonin concluded his talk with his vision for CUSP. Although NYC is the focus and laboratory of the initiative, he hopes that the research can be used to help cities around the world become “more productive, livable, equitable, and resilient.” 
~Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Mary Evelyn Tucker & John Grim: New Developments in Religion and Ecology: State of the Field

Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim, Senior Lecturers and Senior Research Scholars of Yale F&ES and the Yale Divinity School, gave a presentation on the newly emerging field of Religion and Ecology and their recent book and film, Journey of the Universe. The field of religion and ecology is part of the larger context of “environmental humanities,” which merges history, ethics, social sciences, and religion to “study human cultures, behavior, and values” as a means to enhance science, policy, and economics.
“Religion and ecology explores how humans relate to daily and seasonal cycles, agricultural rhythms, biodiversity and bioregions, solar and lunar phases, stellar and cosmic phenomena,” explained Dr. Tucker. This movement is retrieving past scriptures and traditions, reevaluating them, and considering reconstructing them to shape how communities and individuals interact with ecosystems. There are shared values across religious traditions, including restraint in the use of natural resources, respect for wildlife, and reciprocity with life. Humans are embedded in nature, and religious ecology serves as a symbolic understanding of our ecological interdependence.
Over the course of forty years, Dr. Tucker witnessed the modernization and industrialization of China and India, resulting in phenomenal air and water pollution. In 2008, the Deputy Vice Minister for the Environment in China argued that “we have science, we have policy, but we can’t move forward because we don’t have a mindset or values” to protect the environment. And yet Confucian religious cosmology and ecology emphasize the interdependence of cosmos, Earth, and humans. A key tenet of Confucianism is cultivating nature, looking at how we work with nature to grow food. Such foundations have catalyzed the creation of ecological culture in China. Moving forward, academic research and conferences in China are bringing together different disciplines to cultivate humanistic studies and a circular economy in China, which takes into account our interdependence with nature.
Dr. Grim shifted the focus to indigenous traditions and his experience with the Crow tribe, who adopted him into their family. For the Crow, “life is expressed in duality and shared understanding.” When the tribe was given twenty buffalo, its members worked to cultivate and reproduce this resource to the present day population of 800 buffalo – a stunning example of what can be accomplished by a culture that respects and governs its natural resources through spirituality and tradition.
Dr. Grim and Dr. Tucker demonstrated that there are evolving ethics and traditions for our relationship with the environment. Now, they are expanding the vision even further through Journey of the Universe. As in religious texts, “life is given to us in fragments and we put it together as best as we can.” While it may be difficult to explain or address global phenomena through science or policy alone, Dr. Grim and Dr. Tucker show that a joint effort incorporating ethics, religion, the humanities, and culture can build the resilience and understanding necessary for a global shift in attitudes and behaviors towards the environment. 
~Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Scott Doney: Rapid Climate Change: Impacts from Sea-Ice to Penguins

Dr. Scott Doney, Senior Scientist in Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, gave an overview of ongoing research in Antarctica and the ecological transformations caused by climate change.
That the global climate is changing is no longer up for scientific debate. Within this context, Dr. Doney affirmed, “We want to work in Antarctica because it is a nice laboratory to understand what is happening now and what will happen to other coastal and marine ecosystems in the future.” Such changes include warming of the Antarctic circumpolar current and declining sea ice along the peninsula where his work is based. The implications of these geologic and temperature changes are evident through the changes occurring in Adelie penguin rookeries.
These rookeries lie in close proximity to the U.S. Antarctic program base, where a skeleton crew works October through March to study phytoplankton and to monitor local seabird populations. Adelie penguins are the southernmost true penguins. They return to their rookeries every year to nest and reap the benefits of the productive system surrounding the peninsula. The ocean circulation generates a warm upwelling, which leads to plankton blooms and an abundance of krill. This concentrated and reliable food supply is a foundation of the penguin rookeries.
Since the 1970s, researchers have been studying the Adelie rookeries. In the 1990s and early 2000s, scientists linked the collapse of this colony to the loss of sea ice and the changing climate. While there were as many as 12,000 breeding pairs in 1990, now there are less than 2,500 breeding pairs. The Adelie penguins, unaccustomed to melting snow, are facing new survival challenges, like protecting their chicks and eggs from drowning. Subpolar species, such as Chinstraps and Gentoos, are increasingly invading the Antarctic region. It is expected that these ice intolerant species will replace the Adelies as they become functionally extinct in this warming habitat.
Warming is producing other changes throughout the Antarctic food chain. Phytoplankton and krill populations are unstable, and important keystone fish species are disappearing. A shell-crushing predator, the king crab, is invading the warmer waters for the first time in 10 million years. Such changes are forcing communities like the Adelie penguins to adapt or become extinct.
But not all is bad news. With the ban on whaling, many whale populations, especially the humpbacks, are recovering in Antarctic waters. As research efforts in the Antarctic expand, we can better understand these complex systems and learn how they, and other coastal and marine ecosystems, are responding to a changing climate.
~ Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Josh Tewksbury: Conservation Science for the 21st Century: Boundaries, Transformations, and Bringing Science to the Table

Josh Tewksbury, Director of the Luc Hoffmann Institute, presented on his new organization and its efforts to support conservation science and research with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). The purpose of the presentation was to discuss where WWF is headed, the role of WWF internationally, and how knowledge is transferred from universities to policies and practice in different venues.
The context of modern day conservation science falls within the “Anthropocene”, the era in which humanity has “reached a planetary saturation point,” asserted Tewksbury. “The human ability to do has vastly outstripped our ability to understand,” he argued, pointing towards the growth in productivity and GDP worldwide, which is not resulting in better, sustainable practices.
Within this context, there are both challenges and opportunities. These major challenges include population growth, which may bring the total to 9 billion humans; urban growth, where 60% of the area projected to be urban has yet to be built; and rising global demand for food and energy.
Tewksbury then discussed the role of society in the face of development and uncertainty. He highlighted WWF’s Living Planet Index and the global ecological resource as tools for tracking decay. He argued that we need to “rethink the development-environment link” through the transformation from industrial civilization to ecological civilization. Such a transformation would encourage accounting for externalities and being connected across all boundaries and frontiers. This overhaul will require a simultaneous change in all aspects of power relations, a transformation in production and consumption, a redirection of financial flows, and the support of equitable resource governance. Emerging economies are an opportunity to “shift the trajectory of development.”
In modern society, the amount of knowledge is growing rapidly each year. However, we are living in an “information haystack,” where finding the relevant needles is a “big problem for knowledge and policy brokers.” Tewksbury suggested that academics need to be encouraged to be more relevant and to generate knowledge that is both important (for publications) and relevant (for policy). Boundary organizations, which allow individuals to be scientists with relevance, are the future forum for the knowledge transfer from scientists to policymakers. Building a feedback loop between science capacity and policy/practice capacity will allow policymakers to implement effective solutions to the rising challenges in a growing and developing world.
~ Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Dr. John Tschirhart: Economic/Ecological Analysis of Externalities Associated with Natural Gas Development

Dr. John Tschirhart, Professor of Economics at the University of Wyoming, presented an integrated and innovative model of linking economics to ecological systems in the face of natural gas development. Tschirhart explained, “climate, biogeochemical cycles, species distribution, and other natural phenomena are being changed by anthropogenic activities on a global scale.” This presentation concentrated on one such anthropogenic impact – natural gas development in the Midwest.
Dr. Tschirhart presented his case study on Sage Grouse habitat in the Atlantic Rim natural gas development area in Wyoming. Although this land is a habitat for a broad range of species, Dr. Tschirhart chose to focus on an ecosystem of the 12 most significant plants and animals for this area. The model also incorporated ecosystem services, such as cattle grazing, elk hunting, and biodiversity and wildlife viewing. This ecosystem is modeled at the individual plant and animal level, including predator-prey relations and individual consumption levels of certain prey or plants. As a result, any single change in a given predator-prey relation can have system-wide affects in the model.
This model differs from traditional ecological and economic models by using economic concepts to emphasize individual plant and animal behavior. As firms may maximize profit, animals and plants in this model maximize net energy, the difference between incoming energy from consumption and lost energy to respiration and to predation.
In order to determine the effect of installing well pads for natural gas development, Tschirhart modeled buffer zones and potential loss of grass and shrubs within areas close to the well pads. How close to a well pad an animal will forage varies across species. Using a buffer zone of 1,000 meters, the model found that the population of elk and grouse in the area decreased due to congestion and loss of foraging habitat. Over time, populations of ferrets, foxes, and coyotes in the model also declined. The model demonstrated an overall decline to new steady states of all species in the system, although elk and sage grouse experienced the most dramatic population declines.
With this information, the potential long-term consequences of natural gas development on these ecosystems can be predicted. However, it is difficult to quantify the economic losses in wildlife viewing or biodiversity, both non-market goods. Instead, it is easier to measure potential economic impacts on elk hunting and cattle grazing, which have direct market values in terms of hunting licenses and beef sales. The next step in the model would be to incorporate such economic values in order to determine the economic losses represented by population declines in sage grouse and elk in this Wyoming habitat.
~ Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Eric Jay Dolin: When America First Met China

Eric Jay Dolin, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ’88 alum and award-winning author, presented his historical narrative on U.S.-China trade relations, When America First Met China: An Exotic History of Tea, Drugs, and Money in the Age of Sail.

Dolin’s book departs from contemporary economic analysis and brings us back to the moment when the U.S. pursued trading relations with China soon after gaining independence. Americans were already consuming Chinese products, especially tea, brought to them by the British East India Trading Company. (It was in the face of the EIC’s monopoly, and the taxation of tea, that American outrage took the form of the “Boston Tea Party.”)

The U.S. had its own precious goods to offer China. These included an American version of Ginseng, valued as a cure for maladies, and sea otter pelts. A single pelt could be valued at as much as $100 in Canton, a great price at a time when a working man only earned $1 – 2 per day.  

The coastal ecosystems of the U.S., from the Atlantic to the Pacific, offered other treasures. Tens of millions of fur seals were slaughtered for their skins. Natives, paid in sperm whale teeth and weaponry, were contracted to harvest sea cucumbers.

From the beginning, Western countries sought access to the large, potential market of Chinese buyers in an effort to solve the cash-flow problem of imports and exports between China and the West. The discovery of cultivated poppy in the addictive form of opium reversed the flow of silver out of China, rather than into the country. Recognizing the threat of this trade, China banned the importation of opium, resulting in two Opium wars. China was soundly defeated in both episodes, opening the door for trade through treaties and concessions not only with Great Britain – the prime merchant of opium, but also with the U.S.

Another form of trade, even more dark in its history, further expanded during this era. As plantation economies developed in Latin America, additional labor was needed to grow tobacco, sugar, and other products. The African American slave trade had decreased, only to be replaced by the Chinese “Coolie trade.” Although Coolies were technically contracted workers, their quality of life was no better than that of slaves. Nearly 62 American ships brought tens of thousands of Chinese to Latin America, earning a fee per Coolie. The Coolies were often tricked into going onboard, generating mutinies during the Pacific voyage. The high mortality of Americans and Chinese during these voyages earned the ships the name “floating coffins.”

By the 1860s, the nature of trade had shifted. The rise of steam ship travel and the transcontinental railroad created a new avenue for Chinese goods from the West coast to the East coast. Chinese investment actually helped America grow during the mid to late 19th century.

Today, China accounts for nearly 14% of all foreign trade, equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars. This trading relationship, and the mounting trade deficit, has become one of the most important and critical policy issues faced by the U.S. Dolin argued that this is the one aspect that has remained the same since the very beginning – that America’s dream of China becoming a vast market for U.S. goods remains unrealized. However, a complex nexus of investments connects the two countries. Dolin concluded by saying that “a respectful backward glance will allow us to focus more clearly on how far we’ve come since we first met and to travel more hopefully into the future.”
~ Stephanie Stefanski

Seminar Synopsis | Mark Pagani: How Screwed Are We? Climate Lessons from the Past

Professor Mark Pagani, Director of the Yale Climate & Energy Institute, presented a historic look at climate patterns and sensitivity to gain perspective on the potential impacts of growing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
Climate sensitivity is a measure of how responsive global temperatures are to increases in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. A doubling in CO2 concentrations could result in a global temperature increase of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius. How does this increase in global temperature compare with previous states of the earth? Pagani discussed various moments in earth’s history where periods of above average cold, or warmth, pervaded. Pagani reminded us, “Even though it’s old, it’s not irrelevant – it’s like your grandpa.”
In general, the state of the earth tends to be on the warmer end of the climate scope over the course of time. The long-term global carbon cycle encompasses geologic processes, mountain building, plate tectonics, and volcanic activities. Changes in carbon are usually very small, as the system is tightly wound and balanced. So where does that place our current trend in CO2 concentrations in the scheme of history? Pagani asserted that the changes that could be generated by a doubling in CO2 concentrations would be akin to a meteorite hit. The speed and extent of the increase in CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere are near instantaneous, relative to other changes over the millions of years of earth’s history.
As we march upwards in CO2 concentration levels towards peak warming, the system could just “pop.”
Pagani went on to describe geochemical evidence for the role of human activity in the increase in carbon concentrations, such as older atmospheric compounds found in the ocean, due to fossil fuels. Data from historic, natural systems and models of global temperatures may include uncertainties and errors, but using these tools allows us to conceptualize what the world could look like on its current trajectory of rising temperatures and growing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 due to human activity. Looking back at the changes brought about by lesser destabilizations in temperatures and states of glaciation, we should proceed with caution in our outlook towards the future and in the actions we undertake on the path to that future. ~Stephanie Stefanski

New Project Funding: Thomas Graedel

Title: Wealth from Waste

PI: Stuart White (UTS), Co-PI: Saleem Ali (UQ), Glen Corder (UQ), Akbar Rhamdhani (Swinburne), Ruth Lane (Monash), Xuan Zhu (Monash),  Thomas E. Graedel (Yale), Damien Giurco (UTS), Suzanne Benn (UTS), Samantha Sharpe (UTS), Michael Ward (Monash), Gavin Mudd (Monash), Daniel Franks (UQ)

Agency: University of Technology, Sydney (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) $251,430

Abstract: The Wealth from Waste project will (i) identify the non-technical barriers to successful recycling and collection systems;(ii) evaluate the potential resource base from urban mines in Australia under future scenarios; (iii) characterise and test innovative business models that can capture the value of this untapped resource in Australian firms; and (iv) develop transition pathways for Australia to position its research, industry and policy for success in a future where expertise in urban mining and recycling systems will be critical to global manufacturing and resource security.

The Wealth from Waste project represents a singular opportunity to take an integrated view of resource use and management along the value chain. The project joins UTS, Monash, UQ and Swinburne with Yale University and an International Reference Panel to build knowledge networks, assemble evidence, and develop new science to assess the implications that recycling will have on the Australian resource base and manufacturing sector of the future.

New Project Funding: Jennifer Marlon

Title: Collaborative Research and NEON: MSB Category 2: PalEON - A PaleoEcological Observatory Network to Assess Terrestrial Ecosystem Models
PI: Jason S. McLachlan (Univ. of Notre Dame); Co-PI: Michael Dietze (Boston Univ.), Philip Higuera (Univ. of Idaho), Mevin Hooten (USGS and Colorado State), Jennifer R. Marlon (Yale), David Moore (Arizona State Univ.), Chris Paciorek (UC Berkeley), Neil Pederson (LDEO Columbia Univ.), Stephen Jackson (U. Arizona), John W. Williams (U. Wisconsin)
Agency: National Science Foundation $98,897
Abstract: PalEON is an interdisciplinary team of paleoecologists, statisticians, and modelers partnered to rigorously synthesize paleoecological data and ecosystem models. Their aim is to gain a deeper understanding of past dynamics and to use this knowledge to improve long-term forecasting capabilities. This work builds on a 2-year project begun in May 2011. Their data-model integration focuses on four objectives and associated research questions: 1) Validation: How well do ecosystem models simulate decadal-to-centennial dynamics when confronted with past climate change, and what limits model accuracy? 2) Initialization: How sensitive are ecosystem models to initialization state and equilibrium assumptions? Do data-constrained simulations of centennial-scale dynamics improve 20th- century simulations? 3) Inference: Was the terrestrial biosphere a carbon sink or source during the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly? 4) Improvement: How can parameters and processes responsible for data-model divergences be improved?

Seminar Synopsis | Nikhil Anand ’04: ScareCities: Infrapolitics of Water in Mumbai

Assistant Professor of the University of Minnesota and ’04 F&ES Alum Nikhil Anand discussed the political, ecological, and social systems underlying water supply in Mumbai in his lecture, “ScareCities: Infrapolitics of Water in Mumbai.” Understanding how water moves in a system, argued Anand, can help us understand how other components are working in this system. Anand seeks to understand how urban water infrastructure generates different environments in urban cities, from the physical delivery and supply of water to the planning, policy, and institution surrounding its provision.

Urban water systems are a fundamental aspect of urban life. The growth of migration to urban environments worldwide is fomenting a “planet of the slums” where “ecological instability” and “spatial apartheid” need to be addressed. To explore this issue further, Anand conducted multi-sited ethnographic research in Mumbai.

60% of Mumbai’s population lives in settlements where water is the most critical substance. The anxiety of water scarcity generates xenophobic municipal publics and restricts water as a right of urban citizenship, Anand explained. In order to access water, residents need to show proof of being a registered voter in 1995, a request that is nearly impossible for many settlers to fulfill. Instead, settlers access water through either physical leaks or through personal and political connections.

Anand reveals that the perception of scarcity has little to do with actual scarcity. The problem is actually due to unknown and unmetered leakages throughout the system. In one year, there can be as many as 2,000 leakages in one of the 16 districts. However, not all leakages are measured. The physical leakages, where water flows into the ground, can be difficult to detect in underground or obscured pipes. On top of that, social leakages occur through connections made with city funds, politicians, and engineers. Engineers have mastered the art of “selective ignorance” of the location of leakages. In areas where engineers, at the politicians’ request, have cut off settlements from the water supply, engineers often turn a blind eye to settlers’ illegal access to pipes.

Notably, settlers want and desire public, rather than private, water systems, because they provide these personal, public, social, and political leaks at which to be heard. The abjection experienced by residents is a process deeply rooted in the social relationships and material practices where difference (us vs. them) is reproduced and managed through urban infrastructure. Anand concludes that this discrete and differential infrastructure may be more of a marker of the cities yet to come, than of a marker of past development processes.  ~Stephanie Stefanski

F&ES Alum, Mira Manickam, publishes book based on F&ES Masters thesis

Mira Manickam (M.E.Sc. '08) recently published a book based on her masters thesis, entitled Just Enough: A Journey into Thailand's Troubled South. From Amazon: "Just Enough travels inside the conflict zone of Thailand's southernmost provinces and explores traditional Malay Muslim culture. Manickam takes an insightful look into the lives of Thailand's Malay Muslims, focusing on education, environmental destruction, and the threatened livelihoods of coastal fisherfolk, as well as charting the roots of the southern Thai conflict through her travels in the region. This is a personal journey that reveals the colors of daily life beneath the violence of newspaper headlines."


Michael Mann

Seminar Synopsis | Michael Mann: The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars

Dr. Michael E. Mann, a Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University and a distinguished physicist and climatologist, presented on his book, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars. Dr. Mann began with an introduction to the science behind climatology and the historical context of climate models, leading up to his own “Hockey Stick” model presented in the 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change of the United Nations. While the “greenhouse effect” has been known for as many as two centuries, more recent studies have focused on understanding how climate systems work. Independent of thermometer readings, other natural signs, such as changing migration patterns and shifting tree lines, indicate that the world is warming.
Even preliminary models, notably Dr. James Hansen’s 1988 predictions, have mirrored reality in the increase of temperature alongside the increase of human activity. Although these models depart from observed data where they do not account for eruptions and other adverse natural events, they have “passed the laugh test” in being useful tools for modeling past and future global temperatures. These future predictions show that if we extrapolate from current human-caused greenhouse gas increases, there could be an estimated four to five degree Celsius increase in the global temperature, with the Arctic potentially warming twice that much. Mann pointed out that we “would ultimately be leaving our children and grandchildren a different planet.”
With this impending risk, why is there no action? The simple truth is that “we are addicted to fossil fuels.” This addiction is evident in the political debate over climate change, which has impeded the diffusion of this knowledge to the general public, ultimately fomenting doubt and confusion. Dr. Mann described what he calls the “scientization of politics” – the way that science is now “used, or abused, as a political football,” through political intimidation, subpoenas, and other methods in an effort to obscure or debunk scientific results.
Having once received support from both republicans and democrats, Dr. Mann hopes that the issue of climate change can move past being a partisan issue and instead bring together “politicians of good conscious from both sides of the political aisle” in support of climate science. Arguing that we are now beyond the “unworthy debate” on whether or not there is a problem, he proposes that we should instead focus on what policy solutions should be implemented. Dr. Mann concluded that the issue of climate change is a problem of inter-generational ethics – we need to make decisions now so that we do not “mortgage the planet we leave behind for our children and our grandchildren.” ~Stephanie Stefanski
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Kevin McLean

F&ES Doctoral Student, Kevin McLean, receives NASA funding for research

Doctoral student Kevin McLean (advisor: Os Schmitz) has been awarded an Earth and Space Fellowship from NASA. His research will focus on the spatial relationship between movement behavior of neotropical primates and forest structure using a novel integration of high-resolution LiDAR and movement data for collected through radio/GPS telemetry and direct observation. He will test the hypotheses that (a) movements across the landscape are non-random with respect to structural characteristics of the forest and that (b) the frequency distribution of the structural features selected for movement can be used to parameterize a model that identifies areas important for animal movement.

Peter Crane, “Ginkgo – the tree that time forgot” - A synoposis of Dean Crane's FES research seminar talk

Dean Sir Peter Crane’s newly released book, “The Tree That Time Forgot,” explores the rich evolutionary and cultural biography of the ginkgo tree through its origin and proliferation across the planet, its near extinction, and its rescue at the hands of people.
The book conveys an uplifting story of hope and our relationship to nature. During the presentation, Dean Crane shared an impressive array of images and art inspired by ginkgo trees and leaves. From temple tokens to tattoos and paintings, the ginkgo’s distinctive leaf and bright yellow fall color are a familiar symbol in many cultures, especially in China and Japan. However, the ginkgo is not always revered for its unique characteristics and appearance. Its apricot-like seeds create a strong stench, leading to the removal of female ginkgo trees from residential premises.
The ginkgo tree traces its roots to the early Jurassic period in Afghanistan. Its resistance to decay and abundant number of leaves (as many as 300,000) make for good fossils. Through its fossil history, scientists have been able to determine its range and seed distribution. For many years, it had a very restrictive range but broad diversity of species. About 100 million years ago, this diversity declined to only one to two species, which continue to exist in China. The only “wild” populations of these species can be found in the Jinfou and Wes Tianmu Mountain regions in China.
Its longstanding presence in China has fostered an important role for the tree in Chinese culture. Many Buddhist shrines can be found at the base of huge Ginkgo trees, often with prayer ribbons attached to the branches. The tree was described in Chinese literature about 1,000 years ago and inspired Japanese family crests over the past 500 to 600 years.
By the 1700s, the Ginkgo had reached the Western world through trading with the Dutch and through the East Indian Trading Company. By the end of the 19th century, the Ginkgo became well established in European culture. Today, it remains an important tree along suburban and urban streets and in horticulture. Its unique appearance continues to inspire art and design.
The ginkgo has been conserved through cultivation, a technique that can be used to protect plant diversity in the future. Ginkgo trees have a unique reproduction system and can either be male or female. In DC, the majority of female trees were lost – and the oldest, 140 years old, was accidentally cut down. Such events pose threats to its continued existence in our world. Our long-standing history with these trees, and their importance in our culture, calls for a more careful treatment of the ginkgo. We need to begin to think more deeply about our relationship with nature in order to “calibrate the speed of current environmental change” and stand vigilant against the loss of such unique trees like the ginkgo. ~ Stephanie Stefanski

Neighbor to Neighbor Energy Challenge: A Synopsis of Roger Smith's FES Research Seminar talk

Roger Smith

Roger Smith, outreach director for the Neighbor to Neighbor Energy Challenge and co-director of Clean Water Action CT, discussed the challenges of and lessons learned from this program to engage communities in improving home energy efficiency.

In Connecticut, the 64 homes in zip code 06119 emit more annual metric tons of carbon dioxide, on average, than all U.S. users.  Most people in this area, like many others who are used to living in homes with big, empty spaces, feel that there is little they can do to improve the energy efficiency of an “old house.” While different energy audits have been developed through natural gas utility and Connecticut Light & Power to help homeowners reduce energy costs, this “energy marketing” focuses on programs, not solutions. Furthermore, there is low consumer awareness and demand for upgrades. Confusion about energy efficiency further inhibits action beyond small changes in air sealing and lighting.
In an effort to address this challenge and implement change on a large-scale, the Neighbor to Neighbor Energy Challenge developed a “Community Based Social Marketing” strategy. This strategy works on the ground level to engage entire communities in taking action and commitments towards cleaner, more efficient home energy. This strategy centers on a personal bond with the community as a means to establish trust and conduct outreach through existing peer and social networks.
This pilot initiative received $4.1 million in funding from the Department of Energy to “prove that community based strategies are a cost-effective way to drive demand for residential upgrades” and to “demonstrate that Home Energy Solutions could be marketed as a first step to deeper improvements.” As of 2013, over 100 Connecticut towns now have clean energy commitments, supported by town leadership and engaged residents.
The key to success? A multi-disciplinary team and community-driven leadership accompanied by local workshops, presentations, mailings, and door-to-door canvassing. The Neighbor to Neighbor Energy Challenge further distinguishes itself through its innovative campaign centered on fun, engaging, and community-building efforts.
In an ongoing effort to monitor and expand the program, the Neighbor to Neighbor Energy Challenge collects survey responses and information from individuals, households, and completed projects. These assessments not only demonstrate the current success of the program, but also provide feedback that can be used in future efforts that model this program. ~ Stephanie Stefanski

Estimating the Health Benefits of Reducing Particulate Matter Air Pollution: A Synoposis of Roger D. Peng's FES Research Seminar Talk

Roger D. Peng
In this talk, Peng explored the link between small particulate matter (PM) and human health, analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of different study methodologies before presenting the results of his own, intermediate study design.
Air pollution study designs range from utilizing ecological, administrative data, which cover a large population and are relatively cheap and easy to acquire, to more targeted challenge studies, which allow the researcher direct control over the level of exposure and produce detailed health outcomes. Air pollution interventions work at the population-level by regulating sources directly (through scrubbers, filters, mpg requirements, etc.). However, these “natural experiments” can take years to have an effect, and it may be difficult to attribute health outcomes to specific regulations.
This provoked creative thinking on Peng’s part that led to his primary research question, “Can in-home intervention studies also be used to explore the health effects of PM reduction?” If so, “can we create a ‘real-world challenge’ study?”
In-home interventions can act as a microcosm for study by modifying or removing sources of pollution (through gas stove replacements, integrated pest management, air purifiers, and lifestyle changes). Peng’s research explored the effects of a randomized air cleaner intervention study in homes of children with asthma in Baltimore City. The treatment groups received an air cleaner that targeted in-home PM2.5 levels in order to examine the effects of the intervention on the number of symptom-free days. After six months, symptom-free days increased for the treatment group, alongside a significant decrease in PM2.5 levels. These results demonstrate that the intervention had an effect on both pollution and on health.
While there are a few complications associated with this study, overall it serves as a starting point for future studies. The results also make a case for using interventions to get the most “bang for your buck” and as replacements or supplements to expensive medication usage. ~ Stephanie Stefanski

Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Carbon: A Synopsis of Professor Richard Howarth's FES Research Seminar talk

The social cost of carbon is an important theme in both environmental economics and climate change policy analysis. The foundation of the concept lies in Pigouvian theory of externalities, in which environmental quality is legally defined as a public trust resource belonging to each and every member of society. Morally, people have a right to protection from environmental harms, in the present day and across generations. Therefore, if damages do occur due to private activities, the public should be able to charge the polluters a fee to compensate for the pollution, such as carbon emissions, imposed on society. This would be the social cost of carbon.

The basis for applications of the social cost of carbon in the U.S. is Executive Order 12291, which requires the OMB to evaluate new and revised regulations using cost-benefit analysis. In 2010, a group convened by the Obama administration compared the results of three economic models (DICE, PAGE, and FUND) to determine a central estimate of $21/tonne-CO2e. These models rely on atmospheric models, damage functions, economic models, and energy use. This allows economists to compare the “trade-offs between the short-run benefits of emissions and the long-run damages imposed on the economy.”
However, these results were met with critique, as each individual model postulated a significantly different social cost of carbon (as high as $100/tonne-CO2e in the PAGE model). Why are these results so different? The answer lies in the discount rate and in uncertainty. For example, the DICE model is deterministic in that actors behave with certainty regarding the consequences of their current actions on future welfare. In truth, the impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Rather than rely on the expected costs of these low probability consequences, we should instead incorporate society’s risk aversion to such serious potential environmental impacts.
Howarth’s research explores this argument, originally conjectured by Weitzman, through an adapted version of the DICE model. This model incorporates stochasticity, or randomness, and predicts the probability of ‘consumption collapse,’ an extreme climate catastrophe from an economic perspective. Even though the results show that the marginal benefit to society for emissions reductions beyond the first unit of abatement could be very low, the benefit from that first unit of abatement should be very high. By reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic events, climate stabilization can generate large net economic benefits.
Even though the extent of randomness in climate change makes it difficult to determine one, “true” value for the social cost of carbon, Howarth argues that policymakers should aim at a target that would generate climate stabilization. Across all policy scenarios that achieve this stability in the models, social welfare is nearly the same. Rather than maximizing welfare, we should seek policies that minimize the cost of achieving these targets (for example, the two-degree-Celsius temperature limit established in the Copenhagen Accord).
In this DICE model, such a way forward would generate a carbon price that rises over time in the next forty years. Ideally, it would be based on a cap-and-auction system, which would use market mechanisms and incentives to initiate phased emissions reductions. Such an auctioning system would realize Pigou’s goals of compensating the public for the use of public trust resources. ~Stephanie Stefanski

F&ES Seminar Wrapup - Regional growth patterns, recycling, and criticality: Lessons from metal life cycles

Cropped photo
Barbara Reck
In the past 100 years, global metal use has significantly increased while ore quality has been decreasing at an alarming rate. Large, aggregated quantities of metals in easily accessible mines are depleted. Now, our efficiency at metal extraction must increase in order to meet the demand for more metals, and for more types of metals. Advances in modern technology, healthcare, and other fields entail the use of a greater number of elements than ever before. For example, computer chips now require 45 elements, as compared to just 12 elements in the 1980s.
As a result, there is a need to systematically analyze the use of all metals and their potential criticality. This need has generated the Criticality Project at Yale’s Center for Industrial Ecology, launched to develop “a workable, defendable methodology for quantitatively assessing the criticality of all metals.” In her presentation, Dr. Reck shared what the project has uncovered about our use and management of metals – and where there is room for improvement.
The criticality methodology is built on three dimensions: supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications. To better understand these three elements, we need to understand the life cycle of metals. A typical cycle of production, fabrication and manufacturing, use, and recycling and waste management involves over fifty countries in eight world regions.
While as much as 63% of nickel, for example, is recycled at the end-of life stage, almost half of the elements in the periodic table are essentially not recycled at all. For many of these common metals, we have had time to develop profitable and efficient recycling methods. Precious metals are also recycled, due to their high value. However, special metals required in modern technology are used in small volume and lack well-developed systems for recycling. Even though they are classified as “rare earth” metals, they are rarely recycled.
Why don’t we recycle so many metals? Dr. Reck discusses four explanations: collection, economies of scale, non-functional recycling, and product design. In sum, many of these metals are used in small quantities in very complex products. There are no well-established systems for collecting and efficiently dismantling these products for recycling. Only a few of these metals can be recycled at economies of scale while most are combined with other metals, leading to insufficient separation of these metals for re-use.
With such a complex problem, how can we improve end-of-life recycling rates? Dr. Reck offers four key methods: increase collection rates, improve separation, invest in new recycling technologies, and design products for recycling. Not only are there inefficiencies in handling end-of-life metals, but there are also inefficiencies across the entire lifecycle of a metal. For example, nickel’s recycling rate drops to 52% from the original 63% when you consider its entire life cycle, suggesting that there is room for improvement.
You can only manage what you can measure, Dr. Reck points out. So comprehensive knowledge of full metal life cycles can “provide valuable information to stakeholders on how to move towards sustainable resource management for metals.” ~Stephanie Stefanski

F&ES Seminar Wrapup - A 21st Century Approach to Energy and Environmental Policy: Connecticut Leading the Way

Dan Esty
During his Wednesday seminar, Dan Esty, Commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, declared that we are at a “watershed” moment in the environmental arena - a difficult but promising moment for change and progress. Budget cuts are imminent and, within the past year, the state of Connecticut has experienced a “taste” of climate change through five catastrophic weather events. Yet there is still potential for innovation and realizing a more sustainable and cleaner future in energy, without sacrificing our standards of living and current energy costs. In this pivotal moment, we can find solutions to our problems, but not by looking to the past.
Instead, Esty argues for a few key ways to pave the path for this 21st Century paradigm of resolving our economic and environmental problems. His first goal is to lighten the burden of environmental regulation without lowering standards. Instead of relying on command and control regulation and mandates, he proposes working with businesses and developing economic incentives. Such incentives include “price signals” to ‘signal’ to consumers the most ‘preferable’ choices for society as a whole. This could include raising prices of energy consumption at peak times, especially during hot summer days, in order to reduce overall energy costs.
Esty argues that the key role of the government is in deployment support, which will bring to scale innovations while bringing down costs. With government supporting only those projects that can go to market at the lowest cost, it will be logical for the community to implement these energy efficiency improvements.
To begin, Connecticut will focus on reducing energy consumption in the “mush market” – municipal buildings, universities, schools, and hospitals. This measure will also include an additional element of more reliable energy. Power outages ran rampant this past year in the midst of extreme weather events. Now, there will be a strong effort to upgrade the entire system to a “smart grid”, with distributed generation and micro-grids. This will allow key buildings, like grocery stores, gas stations, and hospitals, to be connected to the grid but to also separate during a time of crisis, which will help these places maintain power even when the grid at large is down.
Esty also states that we need to increasingly use risk as a tool for agenda setting. Rather than dilute our efforts, we need to focus on core concerns by reducing effort, staffing, and funds for other issues. The most critical issues should be selected through a risk-based setting process. By tracking and analyzing our progress, we can see which incentives and efforts are really delivering on their promises.
This ambitious, but potentially revolutionary, plan to shift how we address environmental issues, in a way that is both economically and politically appealing, is not the initiative of just one person. It will require the involvement of the entire community to see this change through. It’s up to all of us to make it happen.  ~Stephanie Stefanski

New Publication

Assistant Professor of Economics, Ken Gillingham, along with colleagues from UC Davis, recently published a new paper in Environmental Science & Technology, entitled "Long-Term Shifts in Lifecycle Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity".

Dr. Julie Zimmerman named 2013 Women of Innovation Finalist


Dr. Julie Zimmerman, Associate Professor of Green Engineering, has been named a 2013 Women of Innovation Finalist for Research Innovation and Leadership.  Overseen by the Connecticut Technology Council, the program recognizes women across Connecticut – those in the workforce and students – who are innovators, role models and leaders in the fields of science, engineering and technology.  Finalists were selected based on their professional experience, history of innovation, ability to think creatively and solve problems, and demonstration of leadership.  The complete list of finalists is available here.

F&ES Seminar Wrapup - Integrity, stability, and beauty: Aldo Leopold’s evolving view of biological invasions

Dan Simberloff
Dan Simberloff, a Gore Hunger Professor of Environmental Science from the University of Tennessee, discussed Aldo Leopold’s evolving view of biological invasions – from the passing reference in early literature to the more in-depth essays in the Sand County Almanac. Simberloff built the discussion on the earliest examples of invasive species, before diving deeper into the semantics of literature in the early to mid 1900s.
Nascent dialogue on invasive species was often built on ‘nativist’ sentiments, utilitarian considerations, and concern for natural aesthetics and stability. Leopold would enigmatically advocate, “native species [are] always preferred,” without giving any specific reasons. In some cases, he saw invasive species as ‘diluting’ natives, therefore threatening human use of these resources. His writings were filled with loaded terminology, referring to plants as “usurpers” of the understory and outright stating that these invaders “[did] not belong.” Yet his aesthetic metaphors added strength to his concerns, poetically presenting a perceived threat of invasive species.
In 1931, a meeting with with Charles Elton transformed Leopold’s thinking on invasive species. Although his writing would still retain aesthetic sentiment, he began to explore the ecological and evolutionary impacts of invasive species to a greater extent.  Leopold reflected that, while it may be ideal to not introduce any species, since we ruin the land, only introduced species could survive there. Therefore, some species could actually be ‘useful’ additions to a ruined or ‘deprived’ landscape.  On the other hand, he also argued that native species maintained balance and stability by keeping the “energy circuit” open, whereas invasive species disrupted ecological systems. However, it was not only the ecological disruption that disturbed Leopold but the aesthetic impact on the natural ‘beauty’ of ecosystems and how they ‘should’ function. This land aesthetic went deeper than superficial appearances and referred to the ecological role and evolutionary path of species.
Leopold’s understanding of ecology and evolution included the more profound qualities, which led to a deeper aesthetic sense and appreciation. This “land aesthetic”, accompanied by ecological concerns for a systematic meltdown due to the presence of invasive species, informed his views towards invasive species. While he viewed some as useful additions, it seems clear that Leopold became deeply concerned with the implications of invasive species. As he so aptly puts it, “A thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise.”   ~Stephanie Stefanski

Dr. Robert Bailis receives UN Foundation funding to lead study on non-renewable biomass in Africa, Asia and Latin America

Geospatial Analysis and Modeling of Non-Renewable Biomass: WISDOM and beyond
This project is a partnership between the Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental (CIGA) and Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas (CIEco), both centers within the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), and Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies (FES) with support from the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC). The researchers propose to develop and, in select cases, validate multi-scalar geospatial estimates of the fraction of non-renewable biomass (fNRB) harvested for woodfuel, including firewood and charcoal, at national and sub-national levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, Tropical Asia and Latin America. This will enable clean cookstove and fuel substitution programs to better understand their impact on land use/land cover change and allow for more accurate and consistent accounting of carbon offsets. At the national and regional level, there are large variations in location, method, and volume of biomass harvesting. Country-level estimates based on national statistics cannot capture the geographic specificity of biomass harvesting and may result in incorrect assumptions about the impact of fuelwood on land cover change. In contrast, spatially explicit estimates of fNRB reflect the variability that characterizes woodfuel demand, supply potential and harvesting intensity, but require more complex analyses. Geospatial approaches like the Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM) methodology support strategic planning and prioritize areas for project implementation.  In addition, a multi-scale geospatial approach, starting with a global overview and progressively focusing on smaller, more local scales allows research to be focused where it is most effective.

F&ES Professor, Peter Raymond, co-author on report that shows climate change already having major effects on ecosystems and species

"Plant and animal species are shifting their geographic ranges and the timing of their life events – such as flowering, laying eggs or migrating – at faster rates than researchers documented just a few years ago, according to a technical report on biodiversity and ecosystems used as scientific input for the 2013 Third National Climate Assessment.  The report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services, synthesizes the scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting ecosystems, ecosystem services and the diversity of species, as well as what strategies might be used by natural resource practitioners to decrease current and future risks. More than 60 federal, academic and other scientists, including the lead authors from the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Wildlife Federation and Arizona State University in Tempe, authored the assessment" [from joint press release by USGS, NWF, and ASU].  Peter Raymond, F&ES Professor of Ecosystem Ecology, served as lead author on Chapter 3 of the report.

New Project Funding: Karen Seto

Title: Understanding Impacts of Desert Urbanization on Climate and Surrounding Environments to Foster Sustainable Cities Using Remote Sensing and Numerical Modeling
PI: Soe Myint (ASU), Co-I: Karen Seto (Yale), Huei-Ping Huang (ASU), and Ariane Middel (ASU).
Agency: NASA $765,990.
Abstract: While the urban heat island effect is well documented, most evidence is based on cities in temperate areas. Recent work suggests that urban desert areas in the tropics and sub-tropics have the opposite effect--they cool rather than heat the area. The proposed research examines the distribution of urban infrastructure and vegetation in and around sub-tropical desert cities and the effects they have on local and regional climate. The project’s goals are to better understand the impacts of changing land cover spatial distribution, patterns and arrangements within and around these cities in relation to climate change and to use this knowledge to support adaptive management and foster sustainable desert cities. The project will examine five desert city regions: Las Vegas, USA; Beer Sheva, Israel; Jodhpur, India; Kharga, Egypt; and Hetian, China.
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New Publications from F&ES Faculty, Staff and Students

September 2013

Beach, E.S.; Weeks, B.R.; Stern, R.; Anastas, P.T., 2013. Plastics additives and green chemistry. Pure and Applied Chemistry 85(8), pp. 1611-1624.
Duguid, M.C.*; Ashton, M.S., 2013. A meta-analysis of the effect of forest management for timber on understory plant species diversity in temperate forests. Forest Ecology and Management 303, pp. 81-90.
Duguid, M.C.*; Frey, B.E.; Ellum, D.S.; Kelty, M.; Ashton, M.S., 2013. The influence of ground disturbance and gap position on understory plant diversity in upland forests of southern New England. Forest Ecology and Management 303, pp. 148-159.
Eckelman, M.J.; Chertow, M.R., 2013. Life cycle energy and environmental benefits of a US industrial symbiosis. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 18(8), pp. 1524-1532.
Elshkaki, A., 2013. An analysis of future platinum resources, emissions and waste streams using a system dynamic model of its intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks. Resources Policy 38(3), pp. 241-251.
Felson, A.J.; Bradford, M.A.; Terway, T.M.*, 2013. Promoting Earth Stewardship through urban design experiments. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11, pp. 362-367.
Kanie, N.; Haas, P.M.; Andresen, S.; Auld, G. (FES Alum); Cashore, B.; Chasek, P.S.; Puppim de Oliveira, J.A.; Renckens, S.*; Stokke, O.S.; Stevens, C.; VanDeveer, S.D.; Iguchi, M., 2013. Green Pluralism: Lessons for Improved Environmental Governance in the 21st Century. Environment 55(5), pp. 14-20.
Strickland, M.S.; McCulley, R.L.; Bradford, M.A., 2013. The effect of a quorum-quenching enzyme on leaf litter decomposition. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 64, pp. 65-67.
Xiao, W.; Liu, S.D.; Wang, W.; Yang, D.; Xu, J.P.; Cao, C.; Li, H.C.; Lee, X.H., 2013. Transfer Coefficients of Momentum, Heat and Water Vapour in the Atmospheric Surface Layer of a Large Freshwater Lake. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 148(3), pp. 479-494.


August 2013

Abbott, J.K.; Fenichel, E.P., 2013. Anticipating adaptation: a mechanistic approach for linking policy and stock status to recreational angler behavior. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 70(8), pp. 1190-1208.
Atwood, M.A., 2013. Effects of euthanasia method on stable-carbon and stable-nitrogen isotope analysis for an ectothermic vertebrate. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry 27(15), pp. 909-913. 
Barnett, A.A.; Ronchi-Teles, B.; Almeida, T.; Deveny, A. (FES Alum); Schiel-Baracuhy, V.; Sousa Silva, W.; Spironello, W.; Ross, C.; MacLarnon, A., 2013. Erratum to: Arthropod Predation by a Specialist Seed Predator, the Golden-backed Uacari (Cacajao melanocephalus ouakary, Pitheciidae) in Brazilian Amazonia. International Journal of Primatology 34(4), p. 860.
Blois, J.L.; Zarnetske, P.L.; Fitzpatrick, M.C.; Finnegan, S., 2013. Climate Change and the Past, Present, and Future of Biotic Interactions. Science 2(341), pp. 499-504.
Manickam, M. (FES Alum). Just Enough: A Journey into Thailand’s South. Silkworm Books, 2013.
Middleton, A.D.; Kauffman, M.J.; McWhirter, D.E.; Jimenez, M.D.; Cook, R.C.; Cook, J.G.; Albeke, S.E.; Sawyer, H.; White, P.J., 2013. Linking anti-predator behaviour to prey demography reveals limited risk effects of an actively hunting large carnivore. Ecology Letters 16(8), pp. 1023-1030.
Regnier, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Ciais, P.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Gruber, N.; Janssens, I.A.; Raymond, P.A.; et al., 2013. Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean. Nature Geoscience 6, pp. 597-607.

Fischer, A.; Marshall, P.; Camp, A., 2013. Disturbances in deciduous temperate forest ecosystems of the northern hemisphere: their effects on both recent and future forest development. Biodiversity and Conservation 22(9), pp. 1863-1893.

Pandey, B., P.K. Joshi, & K.C. Seto, 2013. Monitoring urbanization dynamics in India using DMSP/OLS night time lights and SPOT-VGT data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 23, pp. 49-61.


July 2013

Khan, F.I.; Schinn, D.S., 2013. Triple transformation. Nature Climate Change 3, pp. 692-694.
Middleton, A.D.; Morrison, T.A.; Fortin, J.K.; et al., 2013. Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 280(1762), Article Number 20130870.
McCollum, D.L.; Krey, V.; Riahi, K.; Peter, K., Arnulf, G., Marek, M., Nebojsa, N., 2013. Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges. Climatic Change 119(2), pp. 479-494.
Zarnetske, P.L.; Gouhier, T.C.; Hacker, S.D.; et al., 2013. Indirect effects and facilitation among native and non-native species promote invasion success along an environmental stress gradient. Journal of Ecology 101(4), pp. 905-915.
Kavlak, G.; Graedel, T.E., 2013. Global anthropogenic tellurium cycles for 1940-2010. Resources Conservation and Recycling 76, pp. 21-26.
Son, J.; Lee, J.; Park, Y.H.; Bell, M.L., 2013. Short-Term Effects of Air Pollution on Hospital Admissions in Korea. Epidemiology 24(4), pp. 545-554.
Massetti, E.; Ricci, E.C., 2013. An assessment of the optimal timing and size of investments in concentrated solar power. Energy Economics 38, pp. 86-203.
Bradford, M.A.; Crowther, T.W., 2013. Carbon use efficiency and storage in terrestrial ecosystems. New Phytologist 199(1), pp. 7-9.

Gurung, A.*; Bell, M.L., 2013. The state of scientific evidence on air pollution and human health in NepalEnvironmental Research 124, pp. 54-64.

Bailis, R.; Kavlak, G. (FES Alum), 2013. Environmental Implications of Jatropha Biofuel from a Silvi-Pastoral Production System in Central-West Brazil. Environmental Science & Technology 47(14), pp. 8042-8050.
Twining, C.W. (FES Alum); West, D.C.; Post, D.M., 2013. Historical changes in nutrient inputs from humans and anadromous fishes in New England's coastal watersheds. Limnology and Oceanography 58(4), pp. 1286-1300.


June 2013

Dove, M.R., Human Ecology. New York: Oxford University Press: 2013.
Anderson, G.B. (FES Alum); Krall, J.R.; Peng, R.D.; Bell, M.L., 2013. Re: Is the Relation Between Ozone And Mortality Confounded by Chemical Components of Particulate Matter? Analysis of 7 Components in 57 us Communities. American Journal of Epidemiology 177(12), pp. 1460-1462.
Ebisu, K.; Belanger, K.; Bell, M., 2013. Is the association between air pollutants and birth weight consistent with using different buffer sizes? American Journal of Epidemiology 177(supp 11), pp. S42-S42.
Poulos, H.M. (FES Alum); Villanueva Díaz, J.; Cerano Paredes, J.; Camp, A.E.; Gatewood, R.G., 2013. Human influences on fire regimes and forest structure in the Chihuahuan Desert Borderlands. Forest Ecology and Management 298, pp. 1-11.
Ene, L.T.; Naesset, E.; Gobakken, T.; Gregoire, T.G.; Stahl, G.; Holm, S., 2013. A simulation approach for accuracy assessment of two-phase post-stratified estimation in large-area LiDAR biomass surveys. Remote Sensing of Environment 133, pp. 210-224.
VanWey, L.K.; Spera, S.; de Sá, R.*; et al., 2013. Socioeconomic development and agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences 368(1619), SI, 20120168.
Rosenblum, E.B.; James, T.Y.; Zamudio, K.R.; Poorten, T.J.; Ilut, D.; Rodriguez, D.; Eastman, J.M.; Richards-Hrdlicka, K.*; et al., 2013. Complex history of the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus revealed with genome resequencing data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110(23), pp. 9385-9390.
Fragkias, M.; Lobo, J.; Strumsky, D.; Seto, K.C., 2013. Does Size Matter? Scaling of CO2 Emissions and US Urban Areas. Plos One 8(6), e64727.
Barnes, J.; Dove, M.; Lahsen, M.; et al., 2013. Contribution of anthropology to the study of climate change. Nature Climate Change 3(6), pp. 541-544.
Middleton, A.D.; Kauffman, M.J.; McWhirter, D.E.; et al., 2013. Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd. Ecology 94(6), pp. 1245-1256.
Middleton, A.D.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mcwhirter, D.E.; et al., 2013. Rejoinder: challenge and opportunity in the study of ungulate migration amid environmental change. Ecology 94(6), pp. 1280-1286.
Nagata, T.; DuVal, A. (FES Alum); Lack, H.W.; Loudon, G.; Nesbitt, M.; Schmull, M.; Crane, P.R., 2013. An Unusual Xylotheque with Plant Illustrations from Early Meiji Japan. Economic Botany 67(2), pp. 87-97.
Fenichel, E.P., 2013. Book Review: Capitalizing on Nature: Ecosystems as Natural Assets. Journal of Economic Literature 51(2) pp. 570-572.
Richardson, J.L. (FES Alum); Urban, M.C., 2013. Strong selection barriers explain microgeographic adaptation in wild salamander populations. Evolution 67(6), pp. 1729-1740.
Warren, R.J., II; Bahn, V.; Bradford, M.A., 2013. Decoupling litter barrier and soil moisture influences on the establishment of an invasive grass. Plant and Soil 367(1-2), pp. 339-346.
Barnett, A.A.; Ronchi-Teles, B.; Almeida, T.; Deveny, A. (FES Alum); Schiel-Baracuhy, V.; Souza-Silva, W.; Spironello, W.; Ross, C.; MacLarnon, A., 2013. Arthropod Predation by a Specialist Seed Predator, the Golden-backed Uacari (Cacajao melanocephalus ouakary, Pitheciidae) in Brazilian Amazonia. International Journal of Primatology 34(3), pp. 470-485.
Ko, C.; Ko, C.; Lin, R.; et al., 2013. Influences of temporal independence of data on modelling species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology 14(4), pp. 309-319.
Craven, D.*; Hall, J.S.; Ashton, M.S.; Berlyn, G.P., 2013. Water-use efficiency and whole-plant performance of nine tropical tree species at two sites with contrasting water availability in Panama. Trees - Structure and Function 27(3), pp. 639-653.
Wilson, H.F. (FES Alum); Saiers, J.E.; Raymond, P.A.; et al., 2013. Hydrologic Drivers and Seasonality of Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentration, Nitrogen Content, Bioavailability, and Export in a Forested New England Stream. Ecosystems 16(4), pp. 604-616.

Baker, L.*; Dove, M.; Graef, D.*; Keleman, A.*; Kneas, D.*; Osterhoudt, S.*; Stoike, J.*, 2013. Whose Diversity Counts? The Politics and Paradoxes of Modern Diversity. Sustainability 5(6), pp. 2495-2518.

Leiserowitz, A.A.; Maibach, E.W.; Roser-Renouf, C.; Smith, N.; Dawson, E., 2013. Climategate, Public Opinion, and the Loss of Trust. American Behavioral Scientist 57(6), pp. 818-837.
Strickland, M.S.; Hawlena, D.; Reese, A.; Bradford, M.A.; Schmitz, O.J., 2013. Trophic cascade alters ecosystem carbon exchange. Proceedings of the National Academy of the United States of America 110(27), pp. 11035-11038.


May 2013

Anderson GB, F Dominici, Y Wang, MC McCormack, ML Bell, RD Peng. 2013. Heat-related Emergency Hospitalizations for Respiratory Diseases in the Medicare PopulationAmerican Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 187(10), pp. 1098-1103.
Horton BP, SE Engelhart, DF Hill, AC Kemp, D Nikitina, KG Miller, WR Peltier. 2013. Influence of tidal-range change and sediment compaction on Holocene relative sea-level change in New Jersey, USA. Journal of Quaternary Science 28(4), pp. 403-411.
Wilson C, A Grubler, N Bauer, et al. 2013. Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence? Climate Change 118(2), pp. 381-395.
Bradford MA, AD Keiser*, CA Davies, et al. 2013. Empirical evidence that soil carbon formation from plant inputs is positively related to microbial growthBiogeochemistry 113(1-3), pp. 271-281.


April 2013

Atwood MA*. 2013. Effects of euthanasia method on stable-carbon and stable-nitrogen isotope analysis for an ectothermic vertebrate. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry 27(8), pp. 909-913.

Bailis R, C Rujanavech*, P Dwivedi, AD Vilela, H Chang (FES Alum), RC de Miranda. 2013. Innovation in charcoal production: A comparative life-cycle assessment of two kiln technologies in Brazil. Energy for Sustainable Development 17(2), pp. 189-200.

Castillo-Santiago MA, A Ghilardi, et al. 2013. Estimating the spatial distribution of woody biomass suitable for charcoal making from remote sensing and geostatistics in central Mexico. Energy for Sustainable Development 17(2), pp. 177-188.

Crowther TW and MA Bradford. 2013. Thermal acclimation in widespread heterotrophic soil microbes. Ecology Letters 16(4), pp. 469-477. 

Fenichel EP, B Gentner, R Arlinghaus. 2013. Normative considerations for recreational fishery management: a bioeconomic framework for linking positive science and normative fisheries policy decisions. Fisheries Management and Ecology 20(2-3), pp. 223-233.

Yeh S, GS Mishra, G Morrison, J Teter, R Quiceno, K Gillingham, X Riera-Palou. 2013. Long-Term Shifts in Life-Cycle Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity. Environmental Science & Technology 47(6), pp. 2494-2501.

Mwampamba TH, A Ghilardi, K Sander, KJ Chaix. 2013. Dispelling common misconceptions to improve attitudes and policy outlook on charcoal in developing countries. Energy for Sustainable Development 17(2), pp. 75-85.

March 2013

Baka J. 2013. The Political Construction of Wasteland: Governmentality, Land Acquisition and Social Inequality in South India. Development & Change 44(2): 409-428.
Balog A and OJ Schmitz. 2013. Predation drives stable coexistence ratios between red and green pea aphid morphs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 26(3): 545-552.

Clark DA, C Meek, J Cheechoo, S Clark, AL Foote, D Lee, G York. 2013. Polar bears and CITES: A rejoinder to Parsons and Cornick. Marine Policy 38, pp. 365-368.

Fris, E.M., K.R. Pedersen, & P.R. Crane, 2013. New Diversity among Chlamydospermous Seeds from the Early Cretaceous of Portugal and North America. International Journal of Plant Sciences 174(3), pp. 530-558.
Fujita R, JH Moxley, H DeBey* (FES Alum), et al. 2013. Managing for a resilient ocean. Marine Policy 38, pp. 538-544.

Fenichel, E.P., 2013. Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic. Journal of Health Economics 32(2), pp. 440-451.

Graef DJ. 2013. Negotiating Environmental Sovereignty in Costa Rica. Development & Change 44 (2): 285 - 307.

Howe, P.D., et al., 2013. The Participatory Vulnerability Scoping Diagram: Deliberative Risk Ranking for Community Water Systems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103(2), pp. 343-352. 
Lifset R and M Eckelman. 2013. Material efficiency in a multi-material world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 371(1986), 2010002.

Naesset E, … , TG Gregoire, et al. 2013. Comparison of precision of biomass estimates in regional field sample surveys and airborne LiDAR-assisted surveys in Hedmark County, Norway. Remote Sensing of Environment 130: 108-120. 

Bollandsas, O.M., T.G. Gregoire, et al., 2013. Detection of biomass change in a Norwegian mountain forest area using small footprint airborne laser scanner data. Statistical Methods and Applications 22(1), pp. 113-129. 

Nasiri F, T Savage*, R Wang, N Barawid, JB Zimmerman. 2013. A system dynamics approach for urban water reuse planning: a case study from the Great Lakes region. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 27(3): 675-691.
Son JY and ML Bell. 2013. The relationships between short-term exposure to particulate matter and mortality in Korea: Impact of particulate matter exposure metrics for sub-daily exposures. Environmental Research Letters 8(1), 014015.

Yang, Y., J.E. Saiers,M.O. Barnett, 2013. Impact of Interactions between Natural Organic Matter and Metal Oxides on the Desorption Kinetics of Uranium from Heterogeneous Colloidal Suspensions.Environmental Science & Technology 47(6), pp. 2661-2669.

February 2013

Richards-Hrdlicka KL, et al. 2013. First survey for the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Connecticut (USA) finds widespread prevalence. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms 102(3): 169-180.

Twining CW* (FES Alum) and DM Post. 2013. Cladoceran remains r eveal presence of a keystone size-selective planktivore. Journal of Paleolimnology 49(2), pp. 253-266.
Yeh S, GS Mishra, G Morrison, J Teter, R Quiceno, K Gillingham, X Riera-Palou. 2013. Long-Term Shifts in Life-Cycle Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47(6), pp. 2494–2501.

January 2013

Collins JR, PA Raymond, WF Bohlen, MM Howard-Strobel, 2013. Estimates of New and Total Productivity in Central Long Island Sound from In Situ Measurements of Nitrate and Dissolved Oxygen. Estuaries and Coasts 36(1), pp. 74-97.
Fenichel EP, B Gentner, R Arlinghaus, 2013. Normative considerations for recreational fishery management: a bioeconomic framework for linking positive science and normative fisheries policy decisions. Fisheries Management and Ecology 20(2-3), pp. 223-233.  

Gan JB and B Cashore, 2013. Opportunities and Challenges for Integrating Bioenergy into Sustainable Forest Management Certification Programs. Journal of Forestry 111(1), pp. 11-16.
Gillingham K, MJ Kotchen, DS Rapson, G Wagner, 2013. Energy policy: the rebound effect is overplayed. Nature 493, pp. 475-476.

Kemp AC, et al., 2013. Modern Salt-Marsh and Tidal-Flat Foraminifera from Sitkinak and Simeonof Islands, Southwestern Alaska. The Journal of Foraminiferal Research 43(1), pp. 88-98.
Kukrety S, P Dwivedi, S Jose, JRR Alavalapati, 2013. Stakeholders' perceptions on developing sustainable Red Sanders (Pterocarpus santalinus L.) wood trade in Andhra Pradesh, India. Forest Policy and Economics 26, pp. 43-53.
Lauerwald R, J Hartmann, N Moosdorf, S Kempe, PA Raymond, 2013. What controls the spatial patterns of the riverine carbonate system? – A case study for North America. Chemical Geology 337-338, pp. 114-127.
Naesset E, OM Bollandsas, T Gobakken, TG Gregoire, G Stahl, 2013. Model-assisted estimation of change in forest biomass over an 11 year period in a sample survey supported by airborne LiDAR: A case study with post-stratification to provide “activity data”. Remote Sensing of Environment 128(21), pp. 299-314.
Riggio J, A Jacobson, L Dollar, …, L Lichtenfeld, et al., 2013. The size of savannah Africa: a lion’s (Panthera leo) view. Biodiversity and Conservation 22(1), pp. 17-35.

Smith N and H Joffe, 2013. How the public engages with global warming: A social representations approach. Public Understanding of Science 22(1), pp. 16-32.

* Denotes FES Student author.

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