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Yale Project on Climate Change Communication

Methods

This site provides estimates of U.S. climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences at the state and local levels - a new source of high-resolution data on public opinion that can inform national, state and local decision-making, policy, and education initiatives.

The estimates are derived from a statistical model using multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) on a large national survey dataset (n>13,000), along with demographic and geographic population characteristics.

The estimates were validated using three different methods.

Margin of error estimates based on 95% confidence intervals using 199 bootstrap simulations indicate that the model is accurate to approximately ±5 percentage points at the state level, ±7 percentage points at the congressional district level and ±8 percentage points at the county level.

For more details, please see the online working paper: Howe, P., Mildenberger, M., Marlon, J.R., and Leiserowitz, A., “Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA,” Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2583.