Research Statement

Anthropogenic Iron Stocks: Fundamental and the Case of China

Sustainable metal resource use and waste management rely on the knowledge of metal stocks and flows throughout the life cycle. In contrast to the broadly and deeply investigated metal flows, the research on metal stocks is incomplete due to the complexity of the issue and the extensive requirement of historical and dynamic information.

This dissertation research will characterize the anthropogenic stocks of iron - the most versatile metal. As part of Yale University’s Stocks and Flows (STAF) project, the research will benefit from the theoretical and institutional support from five-year STAF work which has created comprehensive visions for metal cycles. In addition, the long-term and relatively complete industrial statistics for iron and steel provide a solid data basis for the stocks study.

The research starts with defining and classifying multiple anthropogenic iron stocks, including industrial and governmental, hibernating, landfilled, tailings, dissipated, and especially in-use stocks. A top-down approach is applied to quantify the iron stocks-in-use in the time scope of 1900 to 2004 for several major steel producers: the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, and Brazil. Based upon the empirical analysis of these five countries, a sigmoid curve hypothesis of per capita stocks-in-use is proposed to describe the evolution of iron stocks. For those post-industrialized countries, the per capita stocks-in-use might be saturated, but saturation levels may vary greatly from country to country. This research will further test the S-hypothesis. The interplay between iron growth patterns and long waves of economic development and technological innovation will also be examined.

China, as distinct from other top steel producers and consumers, is racing like a dragon boat in iron and steel production and use. A case study will be conducted to assess China’s in-use stocks from a bottom-up perspective through which the metal iron is linked to the goods and services that it provides. The knowledge of past and current situation of China’s iron stocks, together with the context of China’s industrialization and urbanization course, will facilitate the construction of scenarios to image the future iron use and to inform the stakeholders in the fields of technology, industry, policy, and environmental management.