A Yale University / Gallup / ClearVision Institute Poll

Principal Investigator:
Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz
School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Yale University
(203) 432-4865 (ofc)
anthony.leiserowitz@yale.edu

Executive Summary

Overall, a large majority of the American public is personally convinced that global warming is happening (71%). Surprisingly, however, only 48 percent believe that there is consensus among the scientific community, while 40 percent of Americans still believe there is a lot of disagreement among scientists over whether global warming is occurring. Thus, many Americans appear to have already made up their minds, without waiting for a perceived scientific consensus. Further, 69 percent of Americans now believe that global warming is caused mainly by human activities (57%), or caused equally by humans and natural changes (12%), while only 29 percent believe it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.

Americans are evenly split, however, on their level of worry about global warming, with 50 percent personally worried either a great deal (15%) or a fair amount (35%) vs. 50 percent worried only a little (28%) or not at all (22%).  These levels of personal worry are due in part to the fact that many Americans believe global warming is a serious threat to other species, people and places far away, but not so serious of a threat to themselves, their own families, or local communities.

Over the past few years, American perceptions that global warming is currently or will soon have dangerous impacts on people around the world have increased significantly. This survey found that 48 percent of Americans now believe that global warming is already having dangerous impacts on people (30%) or will within the next ten years (18%): a 20 percentage point increase since the question was last asked in a nationally representative survey in June, 2004. Surprisingly, a large majority of Americans (62%) now believe that global warming is an urgent threat requiring immediate and drastic action.

For example, a large majority of Americans (68%) now favor, at least in principle, an international treaty that goes far beyond the Kyoto Protocol, to require the United States to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide 90% by the year 2050.

The U.S. Congress is currently debating an increase in the fuel economy standard for cars, trucks, and SUV’s. This survey found that a very large majority of Americans (85%) support a fuel economy standard of 35 miles per gallon, even if a new car thus cost up to $500 more to buy. Congress is also currently debating whether to mandate that electric utilities produce a certain percentage of their electricity from renewable energy sources. This survey found that 82 percent of Americans support legislation that requires utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from renewables, even if it cost the average household an extra $100 a year. Additionally, 89 percent of Americans would support a requirement that all new homes and commercial buildings meet higher energy efficiency standards.

However, this survey also found continued strong opposition to carbon taxes, such as higher taxes on electricity, with 71 percent of Americans strongly (49%) or somewhat opposed (22%), or higher taxes on gasoline, with 67 percent of Americans strongly (48%) or somewhat opposed (19%). Thus paradoxically, while Americans strongly support national and international action on global warming, and are willing to pay more for a car and on their yearly electric bill, they remain adamantly opposed to higher gasoline or electricity taxes.

Global warming is also emerging as an important issue in the presidential election. Survey respondents were asked: “If the presidential election were held today, how important would a candidate’s position on global warming be in your decision about whom to vote for?” A surprising 40 percent of Americans said a candidate’s position would be either extremely (16%) or very important (24%), with an additional 35 percent saying it would be somewhat important.

Finally, in the past, some commentators have suggested that many Americans feel either personally helpless to reduce global warming or to believe that the actions of a single country like the United States won’t make any difference. This survey asked respondents if they could personally take actions to help reduce global warming and found that 82 percent of Americans strongly (55%) or somewhat agreed (27%). Likewise, when asked if the United States could take actions to help reduce global warming, 87 percent of Americans strongly (66%) or somewhat agreed (21%). Further, 69 percent of Americans said they strongly (49%) or somewhat disagreed (20%) that the action of a single person won’t make any difference in reducing global warming. Finally, 76 percent said they strongly (59%) or somewhat disagreed (17%) that the actions of a single country like the United States won’t make any difference in reducing global warming. These results demonstrate that most Americans maintain a “can-do” attitude about this issue and believe that they individually and collectively as a nation can make an important difference in reducing global warming.

Overall, these results demonstrate that most Americans now believe that global warming is occurring, is caused by human activities, and is an urgent threat requiring immediate action. Only half, however, personally worry about global warming, largely because many believe it will primarily impact people, other species, and places far away. Nonetheless, they strongly support a number of national and international policies to address this problem, but remain strongly opposed to carbon taxes. With the presidential primaries and general election near, presidential candidates should recognize that global warming has become an important issue for the electorate. Finally, Americans remain optimistic and confident that they individually and collectively as a nation can make a difference.

Methodology

This survey was conducted July 23-26, 2007, using telephone interviews with 1,011 adults, aged 18+. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The CASRO response rate was 40%. The final sample was weighted to be representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.